How dangerous is Covid-19 for my child at Himawari?
This is a difficult question that many parents are facing right now. Is it safe to send my preschool child to Himawari Preschool?
As of today (August 11) I think the best answer is to compare Covid-19 to something similar we have had in past school years: the Flu (Influenza).
Here is a link to the CDC website for Covid-19 For everyone tested in the US and having Covid, 1.6% were ages 0-4 and 5.9% were ages 5-17 (as of Aug 10). Only 0.025% of infected children ages 0-4 (30 kids) and 0.037% of infected children ages 5-17 (43 kids) have died from Covid so far. If we use March 10 as the beginning of the pandemic, then we’ve had 155 days, or 42.5% of a year: so yearly deaths could be estimated at 71 deaths ages 0-4, and 101 deaths ages 5-17.
Here is a link to the CDC website for Influenza The CDC thinks that there were 35.5 million cases of the Flu in the US in 2018-19. Of these, 10.2% were ages 0-4 and 21.6% were ages 5-17. 0.8% of infected children ages 0-4 (266 kids) and 0.6% of infected children ages 5-17 (211 kids) died from the Flu.
Comparing the US rates of these 2 diseases, kids ages 0-4 are much more likely to get the Flu and have serious complications, as well as kids age 5-17.
Also, the general population positive rates for Covid-19 tests in over a 7-day average in Wayne (4.7% as of 8/9/20) and Oakland (4.6% as of 8/9/20) are both below 5%. The statewide positivity rate is currently at 2.3%, and you can see an updated number at this link. This is a good (low) rate and acceptable for opening school.
So preschool age kids 3-5 years old have more personal risk from the Flu than from Covid. This should help us understand the risk of sending our kids to Himawari Preschool this year.
