How dangerous is Covid-19 for my child at Himawari?

This is a difficult question that many parents are facing right now.  Is it safe to send my preschool child to Himawari Preschool?

As of today (August 11) I think the best answer is to compare Covid-19 to something similar we have had in past school years:  the Flu (Influenza).

Here is a link to the CDC website for Covid-19      For everyone tested in the US and having Covid, 1.6% were ages 0-4 and 5.9% were ages 5-17 (as of Aug 10).  Only 0.025% of infected children ages 0-4 (30 kids) and 0.037% of infected children ages 5-17 (43 kids) have died from Covid so far.  If we use March 10 as the beginning of the pandemic, then we’ve had 155 days, or 42.5% of a year:  so yearly deaths could be estimated at 71 deaths ages 0-4, and 101 deaths ages 5-17.

Here is a link to the CDC website for Influenza     The CDC thinks that there were 35.5 million cases of the Flu in the US in 2018-19.  Of these, 10.2% were ages 0-4 and 21.6% were ages 5-17.   0.8% of infected children ages 0-4 (266 kids) and 0.6% of infected children ages 5-17 (211 kids) died from the Flu.

Comparing the US rates of these 2 diseases, kids ages 0-4 are much more likely to get the Flu and have serious complications, as well as kids age 5-17.

Also, the general population positive rates for Covid-19 tests in over a 7-day average in Wayne (4.7% as of 8/9/20) and Oakland (4.6% as of 8/9/20) are both below 5%.  The statewide positivity rate is currently at 2.3%, and you can see an updated number at this link.  This is a good (low) rate and acceptable for opening school.

So preschool age kids 3-5 years old have more personal risk from the Flu than from Covid.  This should help us understand the risk of sending our kids to Himawari Preschool this year.